Winter Forecast

October 13th, 2020 Update – The only change I made this week was to the snowfall map to try and be more exact with the snowfall. I like what I have although snowfall may come from storms in November so that’s how the totals may end up working out.

Sept 29th, 2020 Update – The only changes I made to the forecasts was to extend the frequent winter storms into the Front Range of the Rockies and to narrow down the coastal storm are in the Carolina’s.

I am still thinking that the combination of the La Nina, Blocking Pattern (Negative NAO) and Negative PDO will all lead to an active storm track into the Eastern part of the country. While not a cold winter overall, there will be cold shots into the Northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast. I still think the blocking pattern will lead to several Big Daddy storms along the East Coast. This is not going to be like last year and the other concern if that winter comes on strong early in the season, perhaps starting in November.

September 15th, 2020 – First Release of the Winter Forecast – CLICK ON ANY IMAGE TO SEE A BIGGER IMAGE

My winter forecasts are not going to be full of technical information because I believe that most of the technical stuff really has no meaning to the average users, so I will try to keep things to the point about the winter. The main driver for this winter will be the weak La Nina which has formed in the Pacific and is starting to show-up in the current weather pattern. That La Nina will last through the winter months with impacts from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Midwest into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. In addition, a cool pool of water in the north Pacific will also be a driver for the winter pattern as well.

This is not going to be like last year where most of the country was warm and dry. While I think colder than normal weather will be confined to the Great Lakes and Northern Plains, shots of cold weather will hit much of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The La Nina will drive to storm tracks. One through the Pac NW into the Plains and western Great Lakes with a secondary track coming out of the southern Rockies over to the East coast where I expect several major snowstorms to occur. Blocking will occur this year and if connected with the La Nina pattern at times, it could produce quite a storm along the East coast. I am showing interior areas with 50″+ of snow across the Appalachians and Northeast because I am banking several major snow events to hit this year. In addition, the western Great Lakes and Upper Midwest will be primed for major snow events including at least one or to blizzards. If you compare the two areas, the storms in the western Great Lakes and Upper Midwest will be colder storms.

The storm track across the PAC NW will bring heavy rains to the coast and heavy mountain snows sweeping into the Interior mountains of the West. Southern California will stay high and dry which is not good news for the fire danger which could last into the winter months.

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Forecast from 9/15.

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