8 pm Update Live Blog: Storm Updates for the Severe Winter Storm

8pm Update. Convective band of snow is working it’s way through WV into central PA. We should see good snow rates the next 4-6 hours across central PA. Bursts of heavy snow are going through northern NJ into NE PA. Rates of 1-2 inches per hour possible next few hours.

Sleet has mixed in from the Maryland into SE PA and central NJ. We may see a change back to snow as the upper low comes across tonight.

HRRR shows where the heaviest snow will fall over the next 6-10 hours.

At my house we have 8-9 inches and keep going between moderate to heavy snow.


7am – The arctic front did settle south last night and is form south Jersey into central PA. The airmass behind that front is dry so we may see some virga for a time before the snow gets going. That frontal position will play a factor today for where the heavy snow bands will set up. My thinking is that band shifts into eastern PA to southern New England. 

5:45am – Light to moderate snow is underway across Illinois into Indiana and western Ohio this morning. Ice is developing across western North Carolina. Radar shows some moderate rains moving through that area so look for quick icing on roads the next several hours.

5:30m – Latest ECMWF model snowfall. Some shifting going on overnight as models were figuring out the banding of the snow. It seemed the NAM and HRRR models had issues trying to figure out storm track and snowfall. I think the HRRR is now resolving the issues and is getting track with snow amounts.

9pm – NAM and HRRR did a shift into east in PA with the heavy snow. Looks like all the meso-scale models did a shift east with the heavy snow.

8pm – This is amazing look at the potential weather map Wednesday evening showing the heavy snow banding across PA and the severe storms over The Delmarva.

7pm – This was the late afternoon Saturday image that showed the upper level system over Oklahoma and the surface low near Jacksonville, Fl. The two will merge along the East coast to produce the record snowfall setting storm Wednesday.

27 thoughts on “8 pm Update Live Blog: Storm Updates for the Severe Winter Storm

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  1. Henry, Any thoughts what drew this storm 100-200 miles west compared to this past weekend that was missed originally by most of the models?

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  2. Please convection, and snow elves, crush my area….it’s been such a tough year…and a good two feet would be such a nice way to end the year.

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  3. Henry, where is the info on the live blog, I see the 7am piece above but you have been sending info on Twitter. Also, is the blog interactive with you, if so is this it or is there another blog.

    Thanks

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  4. Hey Henry. I was just noticing that the 540 thickness line has sunk to about the southern county line of Frederick, MD. I know that there are other factors to look at but it has been interesting to see the line sag south since the day began. It is snowing heavily here – Lat: 39.428 Long.: -77.428

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  5. I see the updates now, you must of lumped them all together, there was nothing there when I posted above, plus there were no email updates that you posted something, will there be email updates moving forward.

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  6. my local noaa office nailed this a few days ago….grrr! some areas will verify with snow fall amounts, but most won’t come close

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  7. I am located in Rhode Island…..and a massive dry slot is headed this way,….also much of central and eastern new england…so this is going to be a massive bust!!! again, I give credit to local noaa office, who called this days ago…..anyhow, 3-6 inches maybe,,, for a huge swath where 12-18 was forecasted ……….is there a conspiracy here???

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  8. we are up to about 1/2 inch on ground,…this is the far north eastern tip of RI….if we get 4 inches, I’d be shocked…anyhow, I appreciate the hard work that henry and other meteorologists put into their forecasts ….but this degree of inaccuracy should not happen in 2020…

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  9. Henry, having problems accessing the site, any suggestions? Thx

    On Tue, Dec 15, 2020 at 7:49 PM Weather Madness Pro™ wrote:

    > Henry Margusity posted: ” I am not going to show snow maps anymore unless > they are the HRRR maps. The storm is coming and I think I has said > everything I can about the storm impacts. Now is the time to update on what > is currently going on. 7pm – This was the late afternoon S” >

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