8pm Update. Convective band of snow is working it’s way through WV into central PA. We should see good snow rates the next 4-6 hours across central PA. Bursts of heavy snow are going through northern NJ into NE PA. Rates of 1-2 inches per hour possible next few hours.
Sleet has mixed in from the Maryland into SE PA and central NJ. We may see a change back to snow as the upper low comes across tonight.
HRRR shows where the heaviest snow will fall over the next 6-10 hours.
At my house we have 8-9 inches and keep going between moderate to heavy snow.
7am – The arctic front did settle south last night and is form south Jersey into central PA. The airmass behind that front is dry so we may see some virga for a time before the snow gets going. That frontal position will play a factor today for where the heavy snow bands will set up. My thinking is that band shifts into eastern PA to southern New England.
5:45am – Light to moderate snow is underway across Illinois into Indiana and western Ohio this morning. Ice is developing across western North Carolina. Radar shows some moderate rains moving through that area so look for quick icing on roads the next several hours.
5:30m – Latest ECMWF model snowfall. Some shifting going on overnight as models were figuring out the banding of the snow. It seemed the NAM and HRRR models had issues trying to figure out storm track and snowfall. I think the HRRR is now resolving the issues and is getting track with snow amounts.
9pm – NAM and HRRR did a shift into east in PA with the heavy snow. Looks like all the meso-scale models did a shift east with the heavy snow.
8pm – This is amazing look at the potential weather map Wednesday evening showing the heavy snow banding across PA and the severe storms over The Delmarva.
7pm – This was the late afternoon Saturday image that showed the upper level system over Oklahoma and the surface low near Jacksonville, Fl. The two will merge along the East coast to produce the record snowfall setting storm Wednesday.